Scattered Thoughts

First off, apologies for my extended absence.  There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future.  Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.

Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward.  Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season.  Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year).  As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers.  Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn.  Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right.  The price was right, too.  I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson.  That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.

Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time.  Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on.  The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier.  Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield.  Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.

Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter.  He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties.  He could be start for about half the teams in the National League.  If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.

Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late.  Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury.  Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury.  Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set.  Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors.  He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen.  Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year.  If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left.  One last Rays/Price note:  if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.

One last thing:  the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about:  CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy.  He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage.  Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.

Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: NL East

Previous divisions covered:

AL East

AL West

AL Central

Mets: The Metropolitans have a long list of possible targets which include: Fuentes, Arthur Rhodes, Huston Street, Eddie Guardado, Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez. I doubt that Jason Bay will be shipped to the Mets as reports have said that the Rays have the best offer on the table. An Ibanez to Mets deal has been in the works for a few days and wouldn’t come as a surprise if that gets done before Wednesday is over.

Phillies: The Phillies are obvious buyers this deadline, but there are reports that they might trade Jayson Werth to the Rays, not likely though. They are looking heavily at relievers like Brian Fuentes, George Sherrill and Ron Mahay, although they got an encouraging start last night from Brett Myers which might convince them to lay off the bigger name relievers and go after someone like LaTroy Hawkins.

The front office has consistently denied anything to do with Manny, and now that Teixeira is off the market it seems likely the Sox will keep Manny.

Marlins: Recently, a Manny to Florida for Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Allison rumor came up, but no one has confirmed or dismissed it, yet.

On a more realistic note, the Marlins have been reportedly interested in Will Ohman, although they are more aggressively going after a catcher, due to Treanor’s injury. Their list of Catchers includes the likes of Bengie Molina, Ramon Hernandez and Gerald Laird and it seems certain they’ll land one of them before the deadline.

As I’m writing this I see that the fish are close to acquiring Arthur Rhodes…we’ll see.

UPDATE: Arthur Rhodes has been traded to the Marlins, but at a steep price, giving up prospect Gaby Hernandez.

Braves: After moving Teixeira last night, the Braves look like they might continue the selling outside of Mike Gonzalez. Those players that are available are Jeff Francoeur, Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, who all should bring back a good return. The Braves are not actively shopping Francoeur, rather just making him available in case they are offered the right package. They do appear to be shopping Mark Kotsay and there is a decent chance he could be dealt.

As for Mike Gonzalez, It makes no sense that they wouldn’t trade him. He’s already thirty years old and while, sure, he could make an impact on the next Braves team to make a run at a World Championship, the players received in return would make a bigger impact if they got the right deal.

The Jason Bay to Atlanta deal that surfaced the other day has been dismissed by most. Will Carroll said it was one of the most ridiculous rumors he’s heard.

Nationals: The Nationals don’t appear like they’ll be very active in the next 24 hours, having already dealt they’re biggest chip in Jon Rauch. If they buy, they could go after someone like Adam Dunn.

Odds, Ends, etc.

“Electric Feel” by MGMT is a big time kind of jam.  Wyatt gets some credit there, he was loving it before me.  It’s the best disco song that no one who lived through the disco era has ever heard.  Just thought you oughta know.

Wyatt and I caught the Sunday afternoon Mets/Reds game in the ‘Nati.  Thoughts from that:

• I have never, ever been to a hotter baseball game.  It was just blazing.
• Skyline Chili dogs are hard to beat.
• Your typical Reds fan will find any opportunity to boo Adam Dunn.  In the middle innings of Sunday’s game, a line drive fell in front of him for a single, and the fans booed heartily.  The next inning, he smashed a Mike Pelfry offering down the line to cheers.  Thankfully, some loudmouth behind us pointed out everyone’s hypocrisy.
• Your typical Reds fan will find any opportunity to cheer Ken Griffey, Jr.  Sure, Wyatt and I both loved him as much as anybody during the late 90s, but he’s not that player anymore.  He hasn’t even been that player since he came to the Reds.  Sure, he seems to be an appreciative, gregarious guy, but at this point, Dunn is the better player at the plate and in the field.  Griffey has first basemen’s speed and seems to take exceptionally adventurous routes to balls.  If a fan’s issue with Dunn is a low batting average, then they should take issue with Griffey, too; they’re both hitting under .250, and Dunn’s secondary skills are way ahead.
• Jose Reyes is really, really fast.
• David Wright is really, really good.  There’s nothing he can’t do.
• Edwin Encarnacion just seems like a guy who would end up in Dusty Baker’s doghouse all the time (spotty defense, doesn’t scream “scrappiness”), but he’s avoided it all season, to the benefit of the team.
• The Reds should have some really nice teams over the next few years, with a core of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Encarnacion, Edison Volquez, and Jonny Cueto.  They can certainly compete for some playoff spots in the next 5 years or so if Walt Jocketty can support that.
• The next few years for the Mets will go in the opposite direction unless Omar Minaya can supplement their core with healthier (or just plain better) secondary players.

Also, it’s free preview week at Baseball Prospectus.  You should absolutely check that out for yourself.

Lastly, it’s probably time to start using the Wyatt Watch tag again.

Introducing Lance Manly

Call off the search, I’m here and I brought with me Lance Manly. With the all-star festivities starting tonight, we thought it would be a good time to unveil the Lance Manly NL all-stars. Keep in mind when reading this that these are not necessarily the players with the best stats, but the people who best personify manliness, just as the great Lance Manly himself.

NL Lance Manly All-Stars:

SP- Edinson Volquez, 2.29 ERA, 126 Ks.

C-Brian McCann, 18 HRs, .940 OPS.

1B-Lance Berkman, 22 HRs, 1.096 OPS. A tough decision between Pujols and Lance Berkman, but a nickname like “the Big Puma” puts Berkman over the top.

2B-Dan Uggla, 23 HRs, .978 OPS. Another close call but Lance favors Ugly Uggla over Utley.

3B-Chipper Jones, 18 HRs, 1.086 OPS. Russell Branyan didn’t play enough games to qualify, otherwise it would’ve been close.

SS-Hanley Ramirez, 23 HRs, .957 OPS. “El niño” is manly enough for Lance.

OF-Adam Dunn, 26 HRs, .918 OPS. We at Charging the Mound are very confused as to why no one seems to like Dunn right now.

OF-Ryan Ludwick, 21 HRs, .962 OPS. Do we expect to find Ludwick receiving any postseason awards? No, but you have to give credit where credit is due.

OF-Pat Burrell, 21 HRs, .979 OPS.

Check back in tomorrow for the AL Lance Manly’s.