my turn

I suppose that I can’t let this week get away from me without throwing my predictions out there, too.  Here are Wyatt’s, in case you missed them.

Mine:
AL
East:  Rays (although their decision to send David Price to the minors at the start of the year concerns me – I’d say he’s at least their 4th best pitcher.  Also, the three best teams in the AL are in this division, and I like the O’s longterm, too.)
Central:  Indians (love their hitters, their pitching is sketchier, but everyone else in the division has bigger question marks)
West:  Angels (I feel strangely confident that they’re the best team in the division)
Wild Card:  Red Sox (their depth is tremendous – and the Yankees’ A-Rod absence for the first few weeks will be just enough to put Boston in front)
MVP: Grady Sizemore

NL
East:  Mets (I like the Sheffield addition, at the very least for some depth.  They might have to find someone other than Delgado for 1B, though.  Also, Matt Stairs and Jayson Werth of the Phillies are great complements for one another, aren’t they?)
Central:  Cubs (and I don’t think it’s particularly close)
West:  Diamondbacks (this is basically a coinflip division between the Backs and the Dodgers)
Wild Card:  Dodgers (I expect the Mets, Phils, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers to be duking this out into late September – the West teams just play in a slightly weaker division.  I also think the Rockies might actually surprise some folks, no joke)
MVP:  Albert Pujols

NLCS:  Cubs over Mets in 6 (for my sanity, please, only six)
ALCS:  Red Sox over Rays in 7
World Series: I’m not going there…yet.

Scattered Thoughts

First off, apologies for my extended absence.  There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future.  Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.

Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward.  Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season.  Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year).  As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers.  Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn.  Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right.  The price was right, too.  I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson.  That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.

Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time.  Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on.  The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier.  Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield.  Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.

Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter.  He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties.  He could be start for about half the teams in the National League.  If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.

Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late.  Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury.  Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury.  Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set.  Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors.  He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen.  Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year.  If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left.  One last Rays/Price note:  if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.

One last thing:  the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about:  CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy.  He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage.  Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.

The More Things Change

…you know the rest of the phrase.  Anyway, Surprise!  Ed Wade and Jim Bowden made separate but silly trades.  Jim Bowden sent away a very nice, young, back of the bullpen reliever for Emilio Bonifacio who, um, dreams of being Luis Castillo?  Oh, did I mention that he’s under team control for less than $5 million in ’09 and ’10?  It made some sense for Rauch to be on the block before this trade, because teams semi-regularly overpay for relievers this time of year, and a good-to-great closer is a luxury that a team as far off the playoff chase as the Nationals are doesn’t have much use for.  If you can get back an All-Star caliber starting pitcher or everyday player for a guy like Rauch, you do it, but a below average regular?  Bowden seems to have jumped at the the first deal that came to him.  Good on the D’backs to pick up yet another underrated reliever for a Quad-A second baseman.  He keeps getting mentioned as the potential replacement for Orlando Hudson had O Dog bolted in free agency, but the Diamondbacks can do better than that, even internally.

Ed Wade’s illusion of grandeur continues unabated in Houston!  He sends 25 year old Chris Reineke, one of the ‘Stros top 10 prospects (faint praise, but still), for the 31 year old shell of Randy Wolf.  Wolf isn’t awful, but Petco has masked some of his slip towards mediocrity.  Yeah, this deal makes very, very little sense to me, especially given that Ed Wade wants to re-sign Wolf, based on his comments.  Huh?  I don’t even think I would want to offer him arbitration, even if he was a Type B free agent, which seems likely, let alone give him a multi-year extension.  Heck, the only good reason a team as D-U-N done as the Astros should trade for a guy like Wolf is if the potential draft picks gained if/when the player signs elsewhere rather than accepting arbitration outweighs what you trade away.  In this case, it’s probably a toss up, but if Wade wants to re-sign Wolf, well, that tells you all you need to know about his refusal to accept the reality that the Astros are about as far from contention in the short and medium term as any NL team save probably Bowden’s Nats.

The Wyatt Watch marches on!!