Cubs’ Possible Trade Targets and Home/Road Splits
In case you haven’t noticed, the Cubs keep coming up in Jake Peavy trade rumors. Apparently, along with the Braves and Dodgers, they are one of the finalists to nab him. I’m frankly a little surprised; I’m not sure where these teams match up – the Cubs don’t have any real overwhelming, top-flight prospects (at least, not any they’d be willing to trade), and the Padres are looking for a handful of guys just like that.
I’m mainly here to point out that Peavy’s road ERA over the last 3 years is 1.01 runs HIGHER than his home ERA. That’s okay, he’s still a great pitcher, and while he’s greatly helped by his home park, there could be other factors. It just seems like you might want to weigh that in a decision to trade for him.
Still, I’d love to see the Cubs go get him, especially if they can keep Soto (no brainer), Samardzija, Vitters, and Ceda (probably in that order of importance). I like Felix Pie, but I think that ship has sailed with the announcement that Fukudome and Johnson will platoon in center next year.
And that decision leaves right field open. One of the most interesting names being batted around for that spot right now is Jeremy Hermida of the Florida Marlins. Hermida is a nice role player with a little upside – he was a top prospect, and he’s struggled with motivation (mediocre teams can do that to ya) and some injuries. He fits nicely in the Cubs’ plans by batting left-handed, too. I have no idea what it would take to move him, but I do know that his three year home/road splits are more encouraging. Not also that he hits lefties well enough that he wouldn’t necessarily require a platoon partner (although that might be ideal – in fact, the Cubs might actually already have him in Mark DeRosa, who could play the outfield against opposing left-handers with, say, Ronny Cedeno starting at second).
Of course, this is all a bit pie-in-the-sky right now, but we’ll start to see pieces fall into place soon, I think.
Next time: drawing a parallel between the Red Sox of the decade’s first half and the Cubs teams of current vintage with regards to offseason plans.
Scattered Thoughts
First off, apologies for my extended absence. There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future. Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.
Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward. Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season. Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year). As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers. Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn. Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right. The price was right, too. I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson. That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.
Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time. Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on. The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier. Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield. Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.
Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter. He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties. He could be start for about half the teams in the National League. If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.
Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late. Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury. Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury. Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set. Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors. He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen. Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year. If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left. One last Rays/Price note: if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.
One last thing: the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist. He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about: CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy. He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage. Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.
Deadline Wrap-up
A few housekeeping issues before I start dispensing my thoughts on today’s action. First, slap a big, fat “Lance Manly Approved” sticker on the day Wyatt had today, keeping you posted on all the rumors and movement. Second, check out our new Contact Us page.
Okay, on to the deals.
Early this morning, the White Sox swooped in and grabbed Ken Griffey, Jr. from the Reds for second baseman Danny Richar and right handed pitcher Nick Masset. Richar’s career minor league line is .288 avg/.339 obp/.440 slugging, not bad for a second baseman. The thing is, the Reds already have Brandon Phillips, who happens to be a better hitter than that, and an above average defender. If Richar hits closer to his 2008 minor league line of .262/.321/.427, he’s still a nice player, but doesn’t fit with the Reds. The White Sox didn’t have a need for him as long as they have Alexei Ramirez and Orlando Cabrera in the middle infield and Chris Getz waiting in the wings. Masset looks like a back of the rotation starter or a low-leverage middle reliever, nothing more.
So the White Sox got The (38 year old) Kid for a couple of expendable parts, right? Right, except I just don’t think he fits with their team very well. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are better players than Junior in 2008, so that eliminates the outfield corners. Jim Thome is entrenched at DH, and The Paul Konerko Disappearing Act is playing first base. Apparently Griffey only approved the trade after some sort of handshake agreement that he would be the everyday centerfielder. In 1997, that would have been awesome, in 2008, that’s a scary proposition. No one except for White Sox GM Ken Williams Junior himself seems to think he can be an everyday centerfielder (I even mentioned his, um, “adventurous” defense after our recent trip to a Reds game), and even if he can, where does that leave Nick Swisher? It’s going to be interesting to watch this play out.
The Marlins pried lefty Arthur Rhodes from the Mariners for Gaby Hernandez. Wyatt saw this one coming yesterday. Hernandez has struggled at AAA this year, but he’s still only 22, has a high strikeout rate, and until this year, has kept his home run rate pretty low. He looks like a very real pitching prospect. Rhodes has always been one of the best lefty relievers in the game, able to handle whole innings rather than just one lefty at a time. Over the past couple of years, however, he’s definitely declined, and this year has only 22 innings in 32 appearances, a pretty typical “specialist” sort of ratio. You don’t give up real prospects for guys like that.
The Yankees and Nationals made a minor league swap, the Yanks getting Jhonny Nunez and the Nats getting Alberto Gonzalez. Nothing too exciting there, move along.
Ah, now for the big one. The Red Sox sent Manny Ramirez and the remainder of his salary to the Dodgers and Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates; the Dodgers sent Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates, and the Pirates sent Jason Bay to the Red Sox. This is the sort of deal everyone wins, in a way.
The Red Sox have to be happy that they moved their biggest headache, and while Bay is not quite the name that Manny is, he fits nicely into this Red Sox team – another lefty might have pushed them too far left, as they already have David Ortiz and JD Drew in the middle of the order. Plus, while Manny’s raw rate stats are slightly ahead of Bay’s (.299/.398/.529 vs. .282/.375/.519), Baseball Prospectus’s park-, league-, opponent-, and era-adjusted numbers give Bay the slight edge (.308/.400/.601 vs. .290/.395/.577). A lot of that is probably due to the Green Monster, which can turn some routine fly outs into hits and turn doubles into homers. Bay’s defensive translations look really ugly, but I don’t think you’ll many people in baseball who actually think Manny’s a better defender than Bay. Boston’s centerfielders – Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury – are both significanly better defenders than Nate McLouth, too. Once upon a time, Craig Hansen looked like Boston’s closer of the future, but now it’s hard to see why. He’s probably got a career as a serviceable middle reliever ahead of him. Moss really had no place in Boston, where he was a fifth outfielder. He can hit a little bit and defend an outfield corner pretty well, but the Sawx will be okay without him.
The Dodgers outfield before this trade was any three of Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp. The trade makes it so that there is an obvious starting three: Ethier, Kemp, and Ramirez. You just can’t make a good argument for either of the other two to take much playing time from the lead three, so it will be interesting to see if Joe Torre makes the right call there. If they were going to continue to treat Andy LaRoche like he was expendable, better that they moved him before he lost all sorts of value, I suppose, but I just never understood why he didn’t have a place in that organization. Bryan Morris is still in class A, but also only 21, and the Dodgers are loaded with arms in a way few teams outside of maybe the Twins and Rays are.
The Pirates must be pleased with the deal, too. As I mentioned, I like LaRoche quite a bit; he looks like the sort of guy the Pirates can put at third for the next few years and just not worry about; he’ll be one of the Pirates four best position players the minute he puts on a uniform unless something goes terribly wrong. In the NL Central, the only third baseman clearly better than him is Aramis Ramirez; he might be in the same class as Troy Glaus and Edwin Encarnacion right now, in my opinion.
The other guys are a little less exciting; as I said, Hansen looks like a middle reliever, Morris is significantly far from the Bigs, and Moss is a stopgap corner outfield solution. However, all three of those guys can be a part of the next good Pirates team, and trading Bay gives them some payroll flexibility for next year.
Thus ends the 2008 non-waiver trade deadline; We’ll continue to cover any interesting player movement during August. Thanks for reading.
Manny to Florida; Bay to Boston Falls Through
A three team deal that includes the Florida Marlins, Boston Red Sox, and Pittsburgh Pirates appears to be in the last stages of development. The Florida Marlins would get Manny Ramirez, cash and a prospect all from Boston. Boston will get Jason Bay and John Grabow, and the Bucs will get Jeremy Hermida and some prospects. Of course, their might be some extra prospects here and there and when we see who those prospects are we’ll be sure to keep you updated.
Nice deal all around here. Florida probably got the worst deal out of it, but will end up selling a LOT more tickets and merchandise from this deal then any of the other teams. Boston got the middle of the order hitter that they wanted and added some depth to their bullpen, and Pittsburgh got a nice, young outfielder in Hermida. By making this deal, the Marlins are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to make the playoffs. They’ve certainly got the pop to do that, we’ll see if their defense can hold up for the rest of the year.
UPDATE: The teams are struggling to agree on players involved, reports are saying there is a fifty percent chance of this happening. In other future hall of famer news, the White Sox have agreed to a deal with the Reds that will send Junior to Chicago, but he has to approve the deal first.
UPDATE: The deal appears to be on life alert; another contender, in the Dodgers, has now entered the mix, though.
Special thanks to Will Carroll for help in the details of this trade.
Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: NL East
Previous divisions covered:
Mets: The Metropolitans have a long list of possible targets which include: Fuentes, Arthur Rhodes, Huston Street, Eddie Guardado, Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez. I doubt that Jason Bay will be shipped to the Mets as reports have said that the Rays have the best offer on the table. An Ibanez to Mets deal has been in the works for a few days and wouldn’t come as a surprise if that gets done before Wednesday is over.
Phillies: The Phillies are obvious buyers this deadline, but there are reports that they might trade Jayson Werth to the Rays, not likely though. They are looking heavily at relievers like Brian Fuentes, George Sherrill and Ron Mahay, although they got an encouraging start last night from Brett Myers which might convince them to lay off the bigger name relievers and go after someone like LaTroy Hawkins.
The front office has consistently denied anything to do with Manny, and now that Teixeira is off the market it seems likely the Sox will keep Manny.
Marlins: Recently, a Manny to Florida for Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Allison rumor came up, but no one has confirmed or dismissed it, yet.
On a more realistic note, the Marlins have been reportedly interested in Will Ohman, although they are more aggressively going after a catcher, due to Treanor’s injury. Their list of Catchers includes the likes of Bengie Molina, Ramon Hernandez and Gerald Laird and it seems certain they’ll land one of them before the deadline.
As I’m writing this I see that the fish are close to acquiring Arthur Rhodes…we’ll see.
UPDATE: Arthur Rhodes has been traded to the Marlins, but at a steep price, giving up prospect Gaby Hernandez.
Braves: After moving Teixeira last night, the Braves look like they might continue the selling outside of Mike Gonzalez. Those players that are available are Jeff Francoeur, Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, who all should bring back a good return. The Braves are not actively shopping Francoeur, rather just making him available in case they are offered the right package. They do appear to be shopping Mark Kotsay and there is a decent chance he could be dealt.
As for Mike Gonzalez, It makes no sense that they wouldn’t trade him. He’s already thirty years old and while, sure, he could make an impact on the next Braves team to make a run at a World Championship, the players received in return would make a bigger impact if they got the right deal.
The Jason Bay to Atlanta deal that surfaced the other day has been dismissed by most. Will Carroll said it was one of the most ridiculous rumors he’s heard.
Nationals: The Nationals don’t appear like they’ll be very active in the next 24 hours, having already dealt they’re biggest chip in Jon Rauch. If they buy, they could go after someone like Adam Dunn.
Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: AL West
Previous entries in the series:
AL East
AL Central
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are in really bad shape, to put it mildly. They’re going through a front office change, they’re currently terrible, their franchise player (Ichiro) is aging, and their farm system is not among the best in the game. However, they do have several movable parts for the deadline: Adrian Beltre, who is coveted by the Twins, as I detailed yesterday; Jarrod Washburn, who they’ve discussed with the Yankees (however, it seems the teams are at an impasse – the Yanks only want to take the contract for a bit player, but the Mariners want a “real” prospect); and Raul Ibanez, who seems destined to become a Met once the two teams can agree on a price. I’m surprised they’ve waited this long on trading Ibanez, Wladimir Balentien looks like a nice, major league-ready power hitting corner outfield prospect (and has for awhile now). Other than that, Richie Sexson has already been released and signed by the Yankees – apparently he had NO trade value whatsoever, whether or not the M’s picked up the remainder of his contract. Jose Vidro is probably not going to excite anyone, neither is Willie Bloomquist, neither is Kenji Johjima and his new extension, and so on. Ichiro is going nowhere.
Arthur Rhodes might get moved – he’s another of those veteran lefties who is the backup plan for a lot of teams, so while he might not command a lot, he most likely will find a new home.
Oakland A’s – They’ve already been busy, moving Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, and Joe Blanton this month, as we’ve covered already. It has been a bit of a hard luck season for the A’s; the runs scored/runs allowed numbers indicate that the A’s should be at least one game better than the Angels. That’s a better indicator of team performance going forward, but two caveats come into play here:
1. The team the A’s will be trotting out there the rest of the year is different from the one they’ve been using all year, and
2. Great bullpens often help teams overcome mediocre expected (or Pythagenport) W-L records, and the Angels certainly have one of those.
Anyway, it’s possible the A’s still have some wheeling and dealing left. Guys who might get moved: Justin Duchscherer – the AL ERA leader is probably experiencing a career year, and has several suitors, from the White Sox to the Rockies. Closer Huston Street is one of the best relievers on the market, and has been rumored to be piquing interest in many places: Tampa Bay, Chicago’s south side (Sox), and the LA Dodgers, among others. Lefty Alan Embree is in that Rhodes/Eyre class of veterans who might end up elsewhere. There have not been many Mark Ellis rumors, but with Eric Patterson on board and the A’s all but conceding this year, he might go for the right price – he’s a free agent after the season, though the A’s would love to keep him. There had been some Jason Bay to the A’s rumors, but those seem to have died down. Not much that Billy Beane could do would surprise me.
Texas Rangers – The Rangers won the prize at last year’s deadline, sending Mark Teixeira to the Braves for a gaggle of prospects and youngsters. This year, they don’t have that one big name to move, but they do have some tasty side dishes. For starters, they have 4 – yes, FOUR – catchers drawing interest who are big league ready, roughly.
1. Gerald Laird has the most experience and performance certainty but the least upside among the four. The catching-starved Marlins seem to be the front runner for Laird, but both AL East behemoths (Sawx, Yanks) have been linked to Laird.
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia came over in last year’s Tex deal, he was a big time prospect in the Braves system, but it’s yet to be seen whether or not he can really stick at catcher. The rumors for Salty are more vague than those for Laird, which makes me think he’s staying put, which makes sense – if I was in charge, I’d move Laird and hang onto the other three, figuring out who could cut it behind the plate, then keeping the others as backups/DHs/backup first basemen, at least until I figured out which ones were really keepers.
3. Taylor Teagarden is a really nice defensive catcher, and his bat is less Brad Ausmus/Mike Matheny and more someone who can actually help out a team with the bat. The Red Sox are reportedly interested, as they should be. Last Saturday, Wyatt and I discussed their options for replacing Varitek this offseason, and decided a trade was more likely than a free agent signing, figuring the Rangers were a good match. I’m not sure if that will happen by the deadline, but they’ll definitely revisit it in the offseason if it doesn’t.
4. Max Ramirez is probably the best hitter of the 4, but also has some questions about his defense. He came over for Kenny Lofton at the deadline last year from Cleveland.
Manager Ron Washington has a wishlist, but GM Jon Daniels is too smart to mortgage the future for a futile run at 2 month rentals.
There have been some rumblings about Michael Young to the Dodgers, but I doubt they need him badly enough to pay the price. Milton Bradley’s name has been tossed around, but I think he’ll stay put – Daniels would have to be bowled over to move him. Same with pitcher Vicente Padilla. Third basemen Hank Blalock is the Twins’ backup plan, and might go somewhere else before it’s all said and done.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (CA, USA) – As Wyatt covered this afternoon, the Angels already made a big deal today, bringing in Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek. From their standpoint, it’s a deal you had to make – the price of the upgrade from Kotchman to Tex is significantly outweighed by the benefit. The Angels have been rumored to be in pursuit of some of the lefties on the market, like George Sherrill or Jon Grabow. Minor league slugger Brandon Wood has struggled in brief major league trials, but seems to crush minor league pitching. He’s young enough to pan out, given the opportunity, and some team might bite.
Up Next: NL East
Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: AL Central
Yesterday, I ran down the big rumors involving AL East teams, today, it’s the AL Central. Without further ado…
AL Central
Cleveland Indians – The Indians have already been busy, moving free agent-to-be ace CC Sabathia to the Brewers earlier this month. Over the weekend, they sent 3B/1B/OF Casey Blake to the LA Dodgers for Jon Meloan, a high minors pitching prospect, and Carlos Santana, a catcher at High-A ball with impressive hitting numbers. They also acquired Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for minor league pitcher Luis Perdomo. A couple of years ago, Reyes looked like a good bet to have a long career as a middle of the rotation starter, but faltered in St. Louis. These all look like good moves for a team that is not contending this year, but will in the near future. Maybe they should have held onto CC a bit longer, but the package they got – centering on LF/1B Matt LaPorta, who might be up in September – is not lacking.
It now seems as though the Indians have done most of their selling. They would like to move Paul Byrd, but there probably are not lots of teams panting after him; he’s 37, he’s struck out 51 men in 110.1 innings, and he’s given up 23 home runs. Oh, and he has a 5.14 ERA. He’s no more than a back of the rotation starter at this point, but some teams just need a guy to take the mound and give them 5 solid innings every 5 days. He might not move until the waiver period in August, but I suspect someone will bite, even as an injury replacement.
Kansas City Royals – As has been the case in recent years, the Royals are in a position to sell off their veterans at the trade deadline. This year, there are fewer to move, but they have several nice pieces, so we’ll see what happens. There has been some noise about the Yankees wanting Brian Bannister; if they can’t pry Jarrod Washburn from the seemingly very stubborn Mariners, they might turn their attention elsewhere. That’s where Bannister comes in.
Jose Guillen is another name who keeps popping up in rumors, but as I wrote yesterday, most of the contenders seem pretty well set at the outfield corners/DH. Also, the Royals are not just going to give him away, as reports indicate they want to get back a nice package of players for him.
Catcher Miguel Olivo has been connected to at least a couple teams who badly need to improve behind the plate – Yankees and Marlins. Despite what Joe Girardi says, the Yankees can do better than Jose Molina back there.
Theoretically, Esteban German could be moved, but there does not seem to be much interest. Mark Grudzielanek’s name has been whispered around this time of year every year since he’s been a Royal, but he’s still there, and it does not seem like they want to move him.
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have had a real roller coaster of a season. Still, they’re only 6.5 games out of the division lead right now, and coming on pretty strong. They’re looking for relief help, especially now that Freddy Dolsi and Joel Zumaya are experiencing some aches and pains. They’ve been linked to all the usual suspects, and seem to be especially hot on Gians lefty Jack Taschner and O’s lefty George Sherrill. Presumably, they could be a suitor for Scott Eyre, should the Cubs decide to move him, which seems likely, given their other two lefties (Sean Marshall, Neal Cotts) and the emergence of Jeff Samardzija.
This year marks the second straight year they’ve been linked to Pittsburgh shortstop Jack Wilson, but Pittsburgh would rather keep him, as they have few in-house replacement options, so the asking price is high. He’ll probably stay put, unless Detroit decides they can’t live without him.
Minnesota Twins – The big story here is that Livan Hernandez just keeps getting lit up, while Francisco Liriano is toying with Triple A hitters. Seriously, check out his recent starts, he’s been tremendous. There are service time concerns, I guess, but Minnesota is just being incredibly cheap if they won’t cut bait on Livan and call up Liriano as soon as…last week. Most of the other players they’re rumored to be interested in are hitters – that’s pretty much the case every year with this franchise, by the way. They seem to be really interested in adding a third baseman, with the two primary targets being Hank Blalock of the Rangers and Adrian Beltre of the Mariners. They also might be interested in LaTroy Hawkins, who the Yanks recently designated for assignment.
Chicago White Sox – Sox GM Kenny Williams recently said the “climate was awful” for trades, which for some reason I find hilarious. They already have a nice bullpen, but they have been linked to Oakland A’s closer Huston Street nonetheless. They’ve also been linked to the A’s Justin Duchscherer, who’s leading the AL in ERA. They also might be willing to move Orlando Cabrera, which would open up shortstop for Alexei Ramirez, their current second baseman. That would make sense if they acquired Brian Roberts, who they’ve been rumored to like, but it seems unlikely to me. The Dodgers and Red Sox are also interested in Cabrera.
There have been some rumblings that they might send their backup shortstop, Juan Uribe, to the Red Sox for their backup infielder, Alex Cora, but those talks seem to have fizzled. They would probably still be interested in moving Uribe, and in the right deal, they would part with third baseman of the future Josh Fields. At this point, I would be surprised to see them make any blockbuster deal, but Kenny Williams has been quite a dealer in the past, so not much would shock me.
Up next: AL West
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