Why isn’t Ryan Howard DHing?

Okay, so Greg Dobbs has appeared in 24 career games at first base as far as I can tell, but he’s a pretty average defender at 3rd base, a position that takes much more skill than 1st base.  Ryan Howard may have a name that would be recognized by people who only watch Fox’s Saturday Game of the Week, but he is, by all accounts, a pretty poor defensive first basemen.  I have no idea why Charlie Manuel, a man paid to make decisions like this, has decided his team has a better chance of winning with Howard in the field.

Similarly, I have no idea why he continues to bat Howard and Chase Utley, two lefties, one with huge platoon issues (Howard) and the other with normal platoon issues back to back against a team that has a bullpen with a gaggle of quality lefties.  Jayson Werth utterly owns lefthanded pitching, and Pat Burrell is no slouch of a hitter – putting either one of those guys between the two lefties makes so much sense it should be default.  Are these little things?  Absolutely – but all the Phillies have to do to be the 2008 World Series champions is win three of their next six games, and in an evenly matched series, forcing Joe Maddon to make decisions like, “should I let JP Howell face Jayson Werth with 2 outs and a runner on second in the 6th inning? Or should I pull Howell, hope Balfour can get Werth, and worry later about whether I should burn David Price now, which might burn me the next time through the order” can be the difference.

Scattered Thoughts

First off, apologies for my extended absence.  There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future.  Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.

Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward.  Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season.  Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year).  As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers.  Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn.  Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right.  The price was right, too.  I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson.  That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.

Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time.  Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on.  The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier.  Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield.  Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.

Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter.  He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties.  He could be start for about half the teams in the National League.  If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.

Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late.  Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury.  Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury.  Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set.  Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors.  He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen.  Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year.  If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left.  One last Rays/Price note:  if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.

One last thing:  the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about:  CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy.  He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage.  Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.

Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: AL East

The non-waiver trade deadline is quickly approaching, and the rumors are flying.  We’ve already covered a bunch of the trades that have happened, so here’s a quick rundown of each team’s status.  By the way, the best site on the web for rumors is MLBtraderumors.com, which aggregates rumors from reliable sources in one place.

Anyway, team by team, division by division, here we go, starting with the Worldwide Leader’s favorite division.

AL East
Baltimore Orioles – The O’s are overachieving a bit this year, making a run at .500, but the difference between 78 wins and 82 wins should not be enough for the team to hold onto its veteran hitters.  They ought to be shopping Jay Payton, Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora, and Aubrey Huff.  It’s unclear whether anybody on that list other than Huff could bring back a worthwhile piece.  The O’s would especially like a young, promising shortstop in return.
Early in the year, there were a bevy of Brian Roberts rumors, usually with the Cubs as the destination, but obviously they all fell through.  Rumor has it that O’s owner Peter Angelos, a notorious meddler, squashed any Roberts deal, but it might be wise to explore their options with him.  They don’t have an immediate replacement, but as an ideal top of the order hitter and a solid glove man at second base, Roberts could be a hot commodity.

Toronto Blue Jays – There have been nonstop A.J. Burnett rumors since roughly the beginning of time, but he can opt out of his contract after this year.  If he doesn’t, he’s due $12 million in each of the next two years.  His market value is probably right around that, give or take, oh, $4 million, so it remains to be seen whether he should opt out.  Anyway, most of the teams who wanted pitching have already turned to better or more easily acquired alternatives.  At this point, I’d say it’s more likely that Burnett stays put.
There have been some other rumors about Toronto’s two primary shortstops, David Eckstein and John MacDonald.  MacDonald is one of the best gloves at shortstop in all of baseball, but he is not any kind of hitter.  He might be an upgrade for the Dodgers or another team in need of a shortstop.  Eckstein isn’t much of a defender, but he’s an adequate bat at either middle infield slot.
Matt Stairs could also be moved, he can still hit, but this year, most of the contenders are pretty well set at first base, DH, and the outfield corners.  He might be Plan B for a team like the Mets, though, as he’ll come more cheaply than, say, Raul Ibanez.
Two other names being batted around:  Greg Myers and Rod Barajas.  Neither is more than a temporary solution at catcher.

New York Yankees – It usually is not possible for the Yankees to do anything quietly, but by their own standards, their recent surge has been quiet.  Even with injuries to 60% of their opening day starting rotation (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Chien Ming Wang), the Bombers have gotten good pitching.  The offense has been another story, but the recent acquisition of Xavier Nady should change that, and Damaso Marte will bolster the bullpen from the left side.  The Yankees will definitely be buyers over the next 4 days, but they might not do anything too noteworthy.  It seems at this point as though they will add Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners, although the M’s want a solid prospect in return, and the Yankees would rather just absorb the innings eater’s contract and send back a C+ prospect.  Nonetheless, I think both teams will figure it out in time for the Yankees to add Washburn before his scheduled start Friday.

Boston Red Sox – The Sawx just got David Ortiz back from injury, which just about amounts to adding a bat at the deadline.  They’re one of the few teams that doesn’t have an obvious hole to fill at the deadline, especially if Clay Buchholz can return to pitch effectively.  The bullpen could use a little help, maybe from the left side, but with the transition of Justin Masterson from starting to relieving, they might be fine.  There’s been some chatter that they might add a shortstop, especially a defensive minded one, but Jed Lowrie will probably be good enough that Julio Lugo’s job might be in jeopardy even when he recovers from injury.  Lowrie’s bat is definitely major league ready, but scouts doubt his ability to handle it defensively.
Due to Manny Ramirez’s recent antics, there have been some rumblings about his potential departure, but I doubt that Boston could trade him for more than 80% of his true value.  He’ll stay put, but don’t be surprised if he becomes a free agent in the offseason if/when Boston declines his $20 million option for next year.

Tampa Bay Rays – Like Boston, Tampa is solid in all facets of the game.  There have been rumblings that they’ll add a bullpen arm or a right handed hitting OF/DH, but they might find the price too high.  Their minor league talent and depth is unbelievable, and they might decide to hold onto it.  Rocco Baldelli will make his return sometime in the next month or so to fill that void.  Also, last year’s top pick David Price seems likely to make a Joba/K-Rod-esque impact on this pennant race, negating the need for the bullpen addition.  A Gabe Gross/Erik Hinske/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes timeshare in RF and at DH is, in my opinion, better than they could do via trade.

Up next:  The AL Central