my turn

I suppose that I can’t let this week get away from me without throwing my predictions out there, too.  Here are Wyatt’s, in case you missed them.

Mine:
AL
East:  Rays (although their decision to send David Price to the minors at the start of the year concerns me – I’d say he’s at least their 4th best pitcher.  Also, the three best teams in the AL are in this division, and I like the O’s longterm, too.)
Central:  Indians (love their hitters, their pitching is sketchier, but everyone else in the division has bigger question marks)
West:  Angels (I feel strangely confident that they’re the best team in the division)
Wild Card:  Red Sox (their depth is tremendous – and the Yankees’ A-Rod absence for the first few weeks will be just enough to put Boston in front)
MVP: Grady Sizemore

NL
East:  Mets (I like the Sheffield addition, at the very least for some depth.  They might have to find someone other than Delgado for 1B, though.  Also, Matt Stairs and Jayson Werth of the Phillies are great complements for one another, aren’t they?)
Central:  Cubs (and I don’t think it’s particularly close)
West:  Diamondbacks (this is basically a coinflip division between the Backs and the Dodgers)
Wild Card:  Dodgers (I expect the Mets, Phils, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers to be duking this out into late September – the West teams just play in a slightly weaker division.  I also think the Rockies might actually surprise some folks, no joke)
MVP:  Albert Pujols

NLCS:  Cubs over Mets in 6 (for my sanity, please, only six)
ALCS:  Red Sox over Rays in 7
World Series: I’m not going there…yet.

Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: AL West

Previous entries in the series:
AL East
AL Central

Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are in really bad shape, to put it mildly.  They’re going through a front office change, they’re currently terrible, their franchise player (Ichiro) is aging, and their farm system is not among the best in the game.  However, they do have several movable parts for the deadline:  Adrian Beltre, who is coveted by the Twins, as I detailed yesterday; Jarrod Washburn, who they’ve discussed with the Yankees (however, it seems the teams are at an impasse – the Yanks only want to take the contract for a bit player, but the Mariners want a “real” prospect); and Raul Ibanez, who seems destined to become a Met once the two teams can agree on a price.  I’m surprised they’ve waited this long on trading Ibanez, Wladimir Balentien looks like a nice, major league-ready power hitting corner outfield prospect (and has for awhile now).  Other than that, Richie Sexson has already been released and signed by the Yankees – apparently he had NO trade value whatsoever, whether or not the M’s picked up the remainder of his contract.  Jose Vidro is probably not going to excite anyone, neither is Willie Bloomquist, neither is Kenji Johjima and his new extension, and so on.  Ichiro is going nowhere.
Arthur Rhodes might get moved – he’s another of those veteran lefties who is the backup plan for a lot of teams, so while he might not command a lot, he most likely will find a new home.

Oakland A’s – They’ve already been busy, moving Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, and Joe Blanton this month, as we’ve covered already.  It has been a bit of a hard luck season for the A’s; the runs scored/runs allowed numbers indicate that the A’s should be at least one game better than the Angels.  That’s a better indicator of team performance going forward, but two caveats come into play here:

1. The team the A’s will be trotting out there the rest of the year is different from the one they’ve been using all year, and
2.  Great bullpens often help teams overcome mediocre expected (or Pythagenport) W-L records, and the Angels certainly have one of those.

Anyway, it’s possible the A’s still have some wheeling and dealing left.  Guys who might get moved: Justin Duchscherer – the AL ERA leader is probably experiencing a career year, and has several suitors, from the White Sox to the Rockies.  Closer Huston Street is one of the best relievers on the market, and has been rumored to be piquing interest in many places:  Tampa Bay, Chicago’s south side (Sox), and the LA Dodgers, among others.  Lefty Alan Embree is in that Rhodes/Eyre class of veterans who might end up elsewhere.  There have not been many Mark Ellis rumors, but with Eric Patterson on board and the A’s all but conceding this year, he might go for the right price – he’s a free agent after the season, though the A’s would love to keep him.  There had been some Jason Bay to the A’s rumors, but those seem to have died down.  Not much that Billy Beane could do would surprise me.

Texas Rangers – The Rangers won the prize at last year’s deadline, sending Mark Teixeira to the Braves for a gaggle of prospects and youngsters.  This year, they don’t have that one big name to move, but they do have some tasty side dishes.  For starters, they have 4 – yes, FOUR – catchers drawing interest who are big league ready, roughly.

1.  Gerald Laird has the most experience and performance certainty but the least upside among the four.  The catching-starved Marlins seem to be the front runner for Laird, but both AL East behemoths (Sawx, Yanks) have been linked to Laird.
2.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia came over in last year’s Tex deal, he was a big time prospect in the Braves system, but it’s yet to be seen whether or not he can really stick at catcher.  The rumors for Salty are more vague than those for Laird, which makes me think he’s staying put, which makes sense – if I was in charge, I’d move Laird and hang onto the other three, figuring out who could cut it behind the plate, then keeping the others as backups/DHs/backup first basemen, at least until I figured out which ones were really keepers.
3.  Taylor Teagarden is a really nice defensive catcher, and his bat is less Brad Ausmus/Mike Matheny and more someone who can actually help out a team with the bat.  The Red Sox are reportedly interested, as they should be.  Last Saturday, Wyatt and I discussed their options for replacing Varitek this offseason, and decided a trade was more likely than a free agent signing, figuring the Rangers were a good match.  I’m not sure if that will happen by the deadline, but they’ll definitely revisit it in the offseason if it doesn’t.
4.  Max Ramirez is probably the best hitter of the 4, but also has some questions about his defense.  He came over for Kenny Lofton at the deadline last year from Cleveland.

Manager Ron Washington has a wishlist, but GM Jon Daniels is too smart to mortgage the future for a futile run at 2 month rentals.
There have been some rumblings about Michael Young to the Dodgers, but I doubt they need him badly enough to pay the price.  Milton Bradley’s name has been tossed around, but I think he’ll stay put – Daniels would have to be bowled over to move him.  Same with pitcher Vicente Padilla.  Third basemen Hank Blalock is the Twins’ backup plan, and might go somewhere else before it’s all said and done.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (CA, USA) – As Wyatt covered this afternoon, the Angels already made a big deal today, bringing in Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek.  From their standpoint, it’s a deal you had to make – the price of the upgrade from Kotchman to Tex is significantly outweighed by the benefit.  The Angels have been rumored to be in pursuit of some of the lefties on the market, like George Sherrill or Jon Grabow.  Minor league slugger Brandon Wood has struggled in brief major league trials, but seems to crush minor league pitching.  He’s young enough to pan out, given the opportunity, and some team might bite.

Up Next:  NL East

Mark Teixeira to Angels

The Los Angeles Angels have traded Casey Kotchman and minor league left-handed reliever Stephen Marek to the Atlanta Braves in return for switch-hitting first baseman Mark Teixeira.  The Angels clearly won this deal, but it wasn’t terrible for the Braves, they got a better package then the two compensation picks they would’ve received if Teixeira would’ve become a free agent at the end of the year.  Sure, they gave up more at last year’s deadline then they received at this year’s but, they most likely weren’t going to make the playoffs with him and were right to get what they could.  As for the Angels, they got a nice bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the middle of their lineup and if the AL West wasn’t decided already, it is now.  It does come as a bit of a surprise, though, as the Angels have a history of balking at trading for big names, but this time they were willing to surrender what it took to land Tex.  This trade just further causes one to wonder why teams are willing to give up the packages they do for decent relievers when they could land a solid, middle-of-the-order hitter for a lesser price.