Scattered Thoughts

First off, apologies for my extended absence.  There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future.  Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.

Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward.  Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season.  Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year).  As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers.  Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn.  Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right.  The price was right, too.  I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson.  That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.

Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time.  Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on.  The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier.  Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield.  Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.

Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter.  He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties.  He could be start for about half the teams in the National League.  If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.

Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late.  Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury.  Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury.  Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set.  Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors.  He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen.  Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year.  If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left.  One last Rays/Price note:  if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.

One last thing:  the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about:  CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy.  He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage.  Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.

Deadline Wrap-up

A few housekeeping issues before I start dispensing my thoughts on today’s action. First, slap a big, fat “Lance Manly Approved” sticker on the day Wyatt had today, keeping you posted on all the rumors and movement. Second, check out our new Contact Us page.

Okay, on to the deals.

Early this morning, the White Sox swooped in and grabbed Ken Griffey, Jr. from the Reds for second baseman Danny Richar and right handed pitcher Nick Masset. Richar’s career minor league line is .288 avg/.339 obp/.440 slugging, not bad for a second baseman. The thing is, the Reds already have Brandon Phillips, who happens to be a better hitter than that, and an above average defender. If Richar hits closer to his 2008 minor league line of .262/.321/.427, he’s still a nice player, but doesn’t fit with the Reds. The White Sox didn’t have a need for him as long as they have Alexei Ramirez and Orlando Cabrera in the middle infield and Chris Getz waiting in the wings. Masset looks like a back of the rotation starter or a low-leverage middle reliever, nothing more.
So the White Sox got The (38 year old) Kid for a couple of expendable parts, right? Right, except I just don’t think he fits with their team very well. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are better players than Junior in 2008, so that eliminates the outfield corners. Jim Thome is entrenched at DH, and The Paul Konerko Disappearing Act is playing first base. Apparently Griffey only approved the trade after some sort of handshake agreement that he would be the everyday centerfielder. In 1997, that would have been awesome, in 2008, that’s a scary proposition. No one except for White Sox GM Ken Williams Junior himself seems to think he can be an everyday centerfielder (I even mentioned his, um, “adventurous” defense after our recent trip to a Reds game), and even if he can, where does that leave Nick Swisher? It’s going to be interesting to watch this play out.

The Marlins pried lefty Arthur Rhodes from the Mariners for Gaby Hernandez. Wyatt saw this one coming yesterday. Hernandez has struggled at AAA this year, but he’s still only 22, has a high strikeout rate, and until this year, has kept his home run rate pretty low. He looks like a very real pitching prospect. Rhodes has always been one of the best lefty relievers in the game, able to handle whole innings rather than just one lefty at a time. Over the past couple of years, however, he’s definitely declined, and this year has only 22 innings in 32 appearances, a pretty typical “specialist” sort of ratio. You don’t give up real prospects for guys like that.

The Yankees and Nationals made a minor league swap, the Yanks getting Jhonny Nunez and the Nats getting Alberto Gonzalez. Nothing too exciting there, move along.

Ah, now for the big one. The Red Sox sent Manny Ramirez and the remainder of his salary to the Dodgers and Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates; the Dodgers sent Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates, and the Pirates sent Jason Bay to the Red Sox. This is the sort of deal everyone wins, in a way.
The Red Sox have to be happy that they moved their biggest headache, and while Bay is not quite the name that Manny is, he fits nicely into this Red Sox team – another lefty might have pushed them too far left, as they already have David Ortiz and JD Drew in the middle of the order. Plus, while Manny’s raw rate stats are slightly ahead of Bay’s (.299/.398/.529 vs. .282/.375/.519), Baseball Prospectus’s park-, league-, opponent-, and era-adjusted numbers give Bay the slight edge (.308/.400/.601 vs. .290/.395/.577). A lot of that is probably due to the Green Monster, which can turn some routine fly outs into hits and turn doubles into homers. Bay’s defensive translations look really ugly, but I don’t think you’ll many people in baseball who actually think Manny’s a better defender than Bay. Boston’s centerfielders – Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury – are both significanly better defenders than Nate McLouth, too. Once upon a time, Craig Hansen looked like Boston’s closer of the future, but now it’s hard to see why. He’s probably got a career as a serviceable middle reliever ahead of him. Moss really had no place in Boston, where he was a fifth outfielder. He can hit a little bit and defend an outfield corner pretty well, but the Sawx will be okay without him.

The Dodgers outfield before this trade was any three of Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp. The trade makes it so that there is an obvious starting three: Ethier, Kemp, and Ramirez. You just can’t make a good argument for either of the other two to take much playing time from the lead three, so it will be interesting to see if Joe Torre makes the right call there. If they were going to continue to treat Andy LaRoche like he was expendable, better that they moved him before he lost all sorts of value, I suppose, but I just never understood why he didn’t have a place in that organization. Bryan Morris is still in class A, but also only 21, and the Dodgers are loaded with arms in a way few teams outside of maybe the Twins and Rays are.

The Pirates must be pleased with the deal, too. As I mentioned, I like LaRoche quite a bit; he looks like the sort of guy the Pirates can put at third for the next few years and just not worry about; he’ll be one of the Pirates four best position players the minute he puts on a uniform unless something goes terribly wrong. In the NL Central, the only third baseman clearly better than him is Aramis Ramirez; he might be in the same class as Troy Glaus and Edwin Encarnacion right now, in my opinion.
The other guys are a little less exciting; as I said, Hansen looks like a middle reliever, Morris is significantly far from the Bigs, and Moss is a stopgap corner outfield solution. However, all three of those guys can be a part of the next good Pirates team, and trading Bay gives them some payroll flexibility for next year.

Thus ends the 2008 non-waiver trade deadline; We’ll continue to cover any interesting player movement during August. Thanks for reading.

Manny to Dodgers, Bay to Sox

I’m hearing both of these, and I’ll keep you informed, but I don’t want to write an article about it, like earlier today, only to find it’s been shot down.

UPDATE: Wow.

The new deal appears to be this:

Dodgers get: Manny and cash

Pirates get: from BOS- P Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss from LAD- P Bryan Morris, 3B Andy LaRoche.

Red Sox get: Jason Bay

Here’s a breakdown of the storylines that come from this trade:

• Torre will manage Manny.
• The Pirates will have the LaRoche brothers at first and third.
• The Dodgers hate young talent.
• This might not be a problem but, after watching Kent and Bonds, will Kent and Ramirez pose a similar problem?
• The Sox have now traded two of their three biggest stars of the past decade in two surprising, nobody-gets-news-of-the-deal-til-half-an-hour-past-the-deadline, deals over the past four years.
• The Pirates have set themselves up for a heckuva future with a lineup that will include: Pedro Alvarez, Andy LaRoche, Andrew McCutchen, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss.

Manny to Florida; Bay to Boston Falls Through

A three team deal that includes the Florida Marlins, Boston Red Sox, and Pittsburgh Pirates appears to be in the last stages of development. The Florida Marlins would get Manny Ramirez, cash and a prospect all from Boston. Boston will get Jason Bay and John Grabow, and the Bucs will get Jeremy Hermida and some prospects. Of course, their might be some extra prospects here and there and when we see who those prospects are we’ll be sure to keep you updated.

Nice deal all around here. Florida probably got the worst deal out of it, but will end up selling a LOT more tickets and merchandise from this deal then any of the other teams. Boston got the middle of the order hitter that they wanted and added some depth to their bullpen, and Pittsburgh got a nice, young outfielder in Hermida. By making this deal, the Marlins are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to make the playoffs. They’ve certainly got the pop to do that, we’ll see if their defense can hold up for the rest of the year.

UPDATE: The teams are struggling to agree on players involved, reports are saying there is a fifty percent chance of this happening. In other future hall of famer news, the White Sox have agreed to a deal with the Reds that will send Junior to Chicago, but he has to approve the deal first.

UPDATE: The deal appears to be on life alert; another contender, in the Dodgers, has now entered the mix, though.

Special thanks to Will Carroll for help in the details of this trade.

Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: NL East

Previous divisions covered:

AL East

AL West

AL Central

Mets: The Metropolitans have a long list of possible targets which include: Fuentes, Arthur Rhodes, Huston Street, Eddie Guardado, Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez. I doubt that Jason Bay will be shipped to the Mets as reports have said that the Rays have the best offer on the table. An Ibanez to Mets deal has been in the works for a few days and wouldn’t come as a surprise if that gets done before Wednesday is over.

Phillies: The Phillies are obvious buyers this deadline, but there are reports that they might trade Jayson Werth to the Rays, not likely though. They are looking heavily at relievers like Brian Fuentes, George Sherrill and Ron Mahay, although they got an encouraging start last night from Brett Myers which might convince them to lay off the bigger name relievers and go after someone like LaTroy Hawkins.

The front office has consistently denied anything to do with Manny, and now that Teixeira is off the market it seems likely the Sox will keep Manny.

Marlins: Recently, a Manny to Florida for Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Allison rumor came up, but no one has confirmed or dismissed it, yet.

On a more realistic note, the Marlins have been reportedly interested in Will Ohman, although they are more aggressively going after a catcher, due to Treanor’s injury. Their list of Catchers includes the likes of Bengie Molina, Ramon Hernandez and Gerald Laird and it seems certain they’ll land one of them before the deadline.

As I’m writing this I see that the fish are close to acquiring Arthur Rhodes…we’ll see.

UPDATE: Arthur Rhodes has been traded to the Marlins, but at a steep price, giving up prospect Gaby Hernandez.

Braves: After moving Teixeira last night, the Braves look like they might continue the selling outside of Mike Gonzalez. Those players that are available are Jeff Francoeur, Mark Kotsay and Will Ohman, who all should bring back a good return. The Braves are not actively shopping Francoeur, rather just making him available in case they are offered the right package. They do appear to be shopping Mark Kotsay and there is a decent chance he could be dealt.

As for Mike Gonzalez, It makes no sense that they wouldn’t trade him. He’s already thirty years old and while, sure, he could make an impact on the next Braves team to make a run at a World Championship, the players received in return would make a bigger impact if they got the right deal.

The Jason Bay to Atlanta deal that surfaced the other day has been dismissed by most. Will Carroll said it was one of the most ridiculous rumors he’s heard.

Nationals: The Nationals don’t appear like they’ll be very active in the next 24 hours, having already dealt they’re biggest chip in Jon Rauch. If they buy, they could go after someone like Adam Dunn.

Team-by-Team Trade Possibilities: AL East

The non-waiver trade deadline is quickly approaching, and the rumors are flying.  We’ve already covered a bunch of the trades that have happened, so here’s a quick rundown of each team’s status.  By the way, the best site on the web for rumors is MLBtraderumors.com, which aggregates rumors from reliable sources in one place.

Anyway, team by team, division by division, here we go, starting with the Worldwide Leader’s favorite division.

AL East
Baltimore Orioles – The O’s are overachieving a bit this year, making a run at .500, but the difference between 78 wins and 82 wins should not be enough for the team to hold onto its veteran hitters.  They ought to be shopping Jay Payton, Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora, and Aubrey Huff.  It’s unclear whether anybody on that list other than Huff could bring back a worthwhile piece.  The O’s would especially like a young, promising shortstop in return.
Early in the year, there were a bevy of Brian Roberts rumors, usually with the Cubs as the destination, but obviously they all fell through.  Rumor has it that O’s owner Peter Angelos, a notorious meddler, squashed any Roberts deal, but it might be wise to explore their options with him.  They don’t have an immediate replacement, but as an ideal top of the order hitter and a solid glove man at second base, Roberts could be a hot commodity.

Toronto Blue Jays – There have been nonstop A.J. Burnett rumors since roughly the beginning of time, but he can opt out of his contract after this year.  If he doesn’t, he’s due $12 million in each of the next two years.  His market value is probably right around that, give or take, oh, $4 million, so it remains to be seen whether he should opt out.  Anyway, most of the teams who wanted pitching have already turned to better or more easily acquired alternatives.  At this point, I’d say it’s more likely that Burnett stays put.
There have been some other rumors about Toronto’s two primary shortstops, David Eckstein and John MacDonald.  MacDonald is one of the best gloves at shortstop in all of baseball, but he is not any kind of hitter.  He might be an upgrade for the Dodgers or another team in need of a shortstop.  Eckstein isn’t much of a defender, but he’s an adequate bat at either middle infield slot.
Matt Stairs could also be moved, he can still hit, but this year, most of the contenders are pretty well set at first base, DH, and the outfield corners.  He might be Plan B for a team like the Mets, though, as he’ll come more cheaply than, say, Raul Ibanez.
Two other names being batted around:  Greg Myers and Rod Barajas.  Neither is more than a temporary solution at catcher.

New York Yankees – It usually is not possible for the Yankees to do anything quietly, but by their own standards, their recent surge has been quiet.  Even with injuries to 60% of their opening day starting rotation (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Chien Ming Wang), the Bombers have gotten good pitching.  The offense has been another story, but the recent acquisition of Xavier Nady should change that, and Damaso Marte will bolster the bullpen from the left side.  The Yankees will definitely be buyers over the next 4 days, but they might not do anything too noteworthy.  It seems at this point as though they will add Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners, although the M’s want a solid prospect in return, and the Yankees would rather just absorb the innings eater’s contract and send back a C+ prospect.  Nonetheless, I think both teams will figure it out in time for the Yankees to add Washburn before his scheduled start Friday.

Boston Red Sox – The Sawx just got David Ortiz back from injury, which just about amounts to adding a bat at the deadline.  They’re one of the few teams that doesn’t have an obvious hole to fill at the deadline, especially if Clay Buchholz can return to pitch effectively.  The bullpen could use a little help, maybe from the left side, but with the transition of Justin Masterson from starting to relieving, they might be fine.  There’s been some chatter that they might add a shortstop, especially a defensive minded one, but Jed Lowrie will probably be good enough that Julio Lugo’s job might be in jeopardy even when he recovers from injury.  Lowrie’s bat is definitely major league ready, but scouts doubt his ability to handle it defensively.
Due to Manny Ramirez’s recent antics, there have been some rumblings about his potential departure, but I doubt that Boston could trade him for more than 80% of his true value.  He’ll stay put, but don’t be surprised if he becomes a free agent in the offseason if/when Boston declines his $20 million option for next year.

Tampa Bay Rays – Like Boston, Tampa is solid in all facets of the game.  There have been rumblings that they’ll add a bullpen arm or a right handed hitting OF/DH, but they might find the price too high.  Their minor league talent and depth is unbelievable, and they might decide to hold onto it.  Rocco Baldelli will make his return sometime in the next month or so to fill that void.  Also, last year’s top pick David Price seems likely to make a Joba/K-Rod-esque impact on this pennant race, negating the need for the bullpen addition.  A Gabe Gross/Erik Hinske/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes timeshare in RF and at DH is, in my opinion, better than they could do via trade.

Up next:  The AL Central

Lance Manly AL all-stars

With the NL in the books and the all-star game tonight, Lance is back with his AL lineup. Keep in mind when reading this that these are not necessarily the players with the best stats, but the people who best personify manliness, just as the great Lance Manly himself.

AL Lance Manly all-stars:

SP-Roy Halladay, 2.71 ERA, 121 Ks. Not to mention his 146+ innings pitched at the break.

C-Joe Mauer, 5 HRs .873 OPS.

1B-Jason Giambi, 19 HRs, .915 OPS. The mustache seems to be working alright. Interesting fact, from 2005-2007 Giambi’s splits by position according to ESPN.com:

DH- 613 AB .227/.380/.450 1B- 488 AB .293/.453/.611

2B-Ian Kinsler, 14 HRs, .945 OPS. Ian Kinsler has put forth quite the Rico Constantino-like effort this year.

3B-Evan Longoria, 16 HRs, .861OPS. (Insert Evan/Eva Longoria joke here.)

SS-Michael Young, 7 HRs, .777 OPS. We can only hope that Michael Young shares the same infatuation with the number seven as Larry Walker does with the number three.

OF-Josh Hamilton, 21 HRs, .919 OPS. As Joe Sheehan put, “The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down.”

OF-Grady Sizemore, 23 HRs, .913 OPS. Sizemore has seen a nice jump in a few categories this year such as home runs and stolen base percentage, and he’s just entering his prime.

OF-Manny Ramirez, 18 HRs, .907 OPS. He hits the ball real hard.

DH-Milton Bradley, 19 HRs, 1.050 OPS. With Big Papi injured it’s safe to say Milton Bradley has a “monopoly” at DH this year. Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.