Cubs’ Possible Trade Targets and Home/Road Splits

In case you haven’t noticed, the Cubs keep coming up in Jake Peavy trade rumors.  Apparently, along with the Braves and Dodgers, they are one of the finalists to nab him.  I’m frankly a little surprised; I’m not sure where these teams match up – the Cubs don’t have any real overwhelming, top-flight prospects (at least, not any they’d be willing to trade), and the Padres are looking for a handful of guys just like that.

I’m mainly here to point out that Peavy’s road ERA over the last 3 years is 1.01 runs HIGHER than his home ERA.  That’s okay, he’s still a great pitcher, and while he’s greatly helped by his home park, there could be other factors.  It just seems like you might want to weigh that in a decision to trade for him.

Still, I’d love to see the Cubs go get him, especially if they can keep Soto (no brainer), Samardzija, Vitters, and Ceda (probably in that order of importance).  I like Felix Pie, but I think that ship has sailed with the announcement that Fukudome and Johnson will platoon in center next year.

And that decision leaves right field open.  One of the most interesting names being batted around for that spot right now is Jeremy Hermida of the Florida Marlins.  Hermida is a nice role player with a little upside – he was a top prospect, and he’s struggled with motivation (mediocre teams can do that to ya) and some injuries.  He fits nicely in the Cubs’ plans by batting left-handed, too.  I have no idea what it would take to move him, but I do know that his three year home/road splits are more encouraging. Not also that he hits lefties well enough that he wouldn’t necessarily require a platoon partner (although that might be ideal – in fact, the Cubs might actually already have him in Mark DeRosa, who could play the outfield against opposing left-handers with, say, Ronny Cedeno starting at second).

Of course, this is all a bit pie-in-the-sky right now, but we’ll start to see pieces fall into place soon, I think.

Next time:  drawing a parallel between the Red Sox of the decade’s first half and the Cubs teams of current vintage with regards to offseason plans.

Scattered Thoughts

First off, apologies for my extended absence.  There is no one good reason to explain it all away; sadly, I might have another extended break after this post, as I’m heading to school soon, plus taking a trip and generally being socially busy in the near future.  Hopefully I’ll still find time to blog throughout the fall, but I have a lot of adjustments to make as I get back to school.

Anyway, I had planned to write an extended breakdown of why I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West, while analyzing their organizational standing going forward.  Then earlier this week, the Diamondbacks’ Orlando Hudson went down for the season.  Hudson is one of the more underrated players in all of baseball in my mind – he’s one of the few truly game changing defenders at second base (he’s a 3 time Gold Glove winner, for what that’s worth), and he’s developed into a really solid hitter (.305/.367/.450
this year).  As the difference in the standings has been between 2.5 and 0 games in favor of the Diamondbacks everyday since July 1 and the actual team quality difference has been even less than that (actually favoring the Dodgers based on expected W-L records), I figured the Dodgers’ upgrade – adding Manny – plus the Diamondbacks’ loss would equal an easier road for the Dodgers.  Today, though, Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks threw a wrench in that idea, trading for Adam Dunn.  Dunn is not a perfect fit there, as they could really use a good outfield defender, but his lefty stick fits nicely in a lineup that leans heavily to the right.  The price was right, too.  I guess I still like the Dodgers by a nose, because the addition of Dunn is largely offset by the subtraction of Hudson.  That’s been enough to keep them in first so far, but as long as Joe Torre resists the temptation to throw Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre into the outfield instead of Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, the Dodgers are the better team.

Moving along, Cubs manager Lou Piniella basically told Kosuke Fukudome to start hitting or he’ll be losing playing time.  Fukudome has not been quick to react to the league’s adjustment to him, and his numbers have gotten worse as the season has gone on.  The Cubs have to be hoping that Kosuke’s 2008 is roughly the equivalent of JD Drew’s 2007, which is to say, a negative outlier.  Kosuke has good on base skills, so he’s been a plus even with the struggles, but the Cubs have the personnel to bench Fukudome occasionally; against righties, Mike Fontenot can start at second while Mark DeRosa moves to the outfield.  Lou also said that Reed Johnson could get time instead of Kosuke, but Reed’s struggled against righties, and is pretty much already in a straight platoon with Jim Edmonds in center, with Johnson starting versus lefties.

Speaking of Mike Fontenot, he’s been great for the Cubs this year, but they might see what trade value he has this winter.  He’s limited to one position, second base, and has never hit against lefties.  He could be start for about half the teams in the National League.  If not, he’ll continue to be part of an excellent bench.

Tampa Bay, already one of the most interesting teams in baseball in 2008, has been noteworthy of late.  Rocco Baldelli returned from a mitochondrial disorder to play for the first time all year, just as Carl Crawford hits the disabled list with a finger injury.  Evan Longoria, AL rookie of the year shoo-in, also hit the DL with
a wrist injury.  Crawford might be down for the year, a tough blow for a Rays team that was finally going to have its intended starting outfield all set.  Oh, and lefty pitching phenom David Price is knocking on the doorstep of the majors.  He should get a look later this fall, helping the team in the rotation or bullpen.  Also of note is that Price has thrown just over 90 innings so far this year.  If the Rays set a cap at about 150 innings for him this year (roughly the ceiling Clay Buchholz notoriously faced for the Red Sox last year), he’s still got quite a few innings left.  One last Rays/Price note:  if you haven’t read the recent Sports Illustrated feature on African Americans in baseball, do it ASAP.

One last thing:  the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley should be on your NL Cy Young shortlist/watchlist.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, along with a lot of guys you’ve already heard about:  CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Johan Santana, and Jake Peavy.  He’s probably just a hair behind all those guys in total value so far this year, but gets no media coverage.  Along with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are going to have a devastating 1-2 punch in the rotation for years.

Umpiring Thought

Lou Piniella and Cubs first base coach Matt Sinatro just got tossed from today’s Cubs-Marlins game after Mark DeRosa was called out while diving into first base on a bang-bang play.  At first, I thought DeRosa was obviously safe, but after several replays, I concede that the ball beat him there.  Headfirst slides into first base are a post all to themselves, but this one’s about the nature of umpiring.

Now, I know that there are “magic words” and specific things you can do to get yourself thrown out of a game as a player or coach/manager, and I understand that.  Umpires shouldn’t be forced to go through verbal abuse more than accountants just because their job is in the public eye.  In this case, Matt Sinatro, who I have never seen react to any call so vehemently, immediately slammed his hat down and approached the first base umpire.  He was quickly shown the gate, not before a thorough chewing out and a slight bump.  Piniella came out looking like he intended to be tossed, and the home plate umpire came to the scene of the crime to defend his coworker.  Again, I understand all that.  The problem is the thought process of many umpires.

The ultimate goal of umpires should be to make the correct call every single time.  I understand that they’re human, and make mistakes, but everything that the umpires union, MLB, other umpires, and teams do should encourage flawlessness.  Currently, this is not the case.  Most of the time, umpires uphold the original call, whether or not it’s correct.  They always act as though they are unimpeachable.

For this reason, as you might guess, I support instant replay for home run and fair/foul calls.  In the current structure, replay on ball and strike calls would do more harm than good, as umpires usually have at least slightly unique strike zones, and if they made everyone adapt,

1.  Games would last 5 hours (no joke) from reviews, or
2.  Literally everyone even tangentially involved with baseball would be disgruntled, or
3.  Both.

So while it allows for more error, we cannot yet have instant replay on balls and strikes.  However, replay could be instituted at the bases.  There are not so many close calls as to slow down the game significantly (if at all – replay reviews would probably be shorter than arguments), and most importantly, would lead to more correct calls.  There would need to be a limit on “challenges,” or whatever you want to call them, but it would be helpful.

Instead, we have umpires who stand by, hands behind their back, stone faced, while they idly allow the incorrect calls to continue.

So:  Replay please.  And also, can we reevaluate the way umpires behave regarding close calls and overturns?  That would be great.