Why isn’t Ryan Howard DHing?

Okay, so Greg Dobbs has appeared in 24 career games at first base as far as I can tell, but he’s a pretty average defender at 3rd base, a position that takes much more skill than 1st base.  Ryan Howard may have a name that would be recognized by people who only watch Fox’s Saturday Game of the Week, but he is, by all accounts, a pretty poor defensive first basemen.  I have no idea why Charlie Manuel, a man paid to make decisions like this, has decided his team has a better chance of winning with Howard in the field.

Similarly, I have no idea why he continues to bat Howard and Chase Utley, two lefties, one with huge platoon issues (Howard) and the other with normal platoon issues back to back against a team that has a bullpen with a gaggle of quality lefties.  Jayson Werth utterly owns lefthanded pitching, and Pat Burrell is no slouch of a hitter – putting either one of those guys between the two lefties makes so much sense it should be default.  Are these little things?  Absolutely – but all the Phillies have to do to be the 2008 World Series champions is win three of their next six games, and in an evenly matched series, forcing Joe Maddon to make decisions like, “should I let JP Howell face Jayson Werth with 2 outs and a runner on second in the 6th inning? Or should I pull Howell, hope Balfour can get Werth, and worry later about whether I should burn David Price now, which might burn me the next time through the order” can be the difference.

Pre-Game 2 Blurb

I don’t really feel like last night’s game changes my feelings about the series at all.  I still think the Rays will win, and I still think it’ll be a relatively lengthy series.  They’ll have the better starting on the mound every time that the Phils don’t run Hamels out there.

Sheehan on the Series (EDIT)

Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan has posted his Prospectus Today article, and it’s a fine piece of journalism.  Read it here (not a subscription-only piece as of right now).

Basic premise:  The Phillies best chance in this series is to win when Cole Hamels starts and steal one or two other games.  Sheehan advocates using Hamels on short rest not just in game 4, but again in a potential game 7.  I’m with him wholeheartedly here – the Rays, as I said yesterday, are just the better baseball team, but Philly can maximize their chances of a Series win by getting Hamels on the mound as much as possible.

EDIT:  The comments over there are quite good so far, too (7 posted as of now).  BP has a quite intelligent reader base, and the discussion on their newly added comment threads is top notch.

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Canceled classes are the best.  Get well soon to my World Poly prof.

Quick Thoughts

This would be pretty awesome.  Means nothing, but would be cool nonetheless.

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Also, I’m picking Tampa Bay in 7.  Just a hunch – I think the Phils will take a couple behind Hamels and maybe win a high scoring game 4 (Blanton vs Sonnanstine in Citizen’s Bank Bandbox).  Tampa’s homefield advantage and overall higher talent level will prevail.

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Wyatt Watch.  Probably ought to be a Dauthan Watch, too.

Enjoy the series.

Blanton to Philly

My my my. It’s really, really hard to look at this and NOT think the Phils overpaid. If you haven’t seen, the A’s sent Joe Blanton to the Phillies for three minor leaguers. 2 are really solid prospects; Adrian Cardenas looks for all the world as though he has a major league bat, although it’s unclear if he’s going to stick in the middle infield. If he doesn’t, he’s slightly less exciting, but would still be useful in several roles, the kind of guy who could be slotted in at 4 to 6 positions and provide some OBP, a little pop, and an average glove. Josh Outman is a high strikeout lefty who has switched to the bullpen this year. He allows more baserunners than you’d wish, but still looks like a nice live arm. Matthew Spencer has some power, but looks to be limited to corner outfield/1B/DH, without really having the bat to stick at any of those spots as more than a bench player without some big strides. There’s some power, but not enough contact/patience/etc. to me a star.

Philly has been in the market for a starter seemingly every year in recent memory, and they’ve added some guys over the years – Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer, for example. Blanton is definitely a major league pitcher, but he’s really not much more than a number three starter on a good team. He eats innings, which is nice, but his ERA this year is slightly under 5, and he’ll probably replace Adam Eaton in the rotation. He’s definitely better than Eaton, who’s a really poor fit for Philly’s home park, since he’s a flyball machine.

So the Phillies improve slightly for now, but gave away more than you’d really like to for a little upgrade in the rotation. Two of your top prospects plus another minor leaguer is a good haul for Billy Beane and the A’s. In my mind, this doesn’t exactly make up for getting so little (in my mind) for Harden + Gaudin, but is a great example of Beane taking advantage of a market inefficiency – there are few dependable starting pitchers on the market, and he’s had some to sell.